The Case for Optimism, A Retrospective from 21-10
Monday December 28th 2009, 12:18 am

The pace of technological change is accelerating and there is more reason for optimism now than at any point in history.  Within 100 years, the world will have ubiquitous and free energy, healthcare and education. Poverty will be wiped out, sickness and disease will be rare, and world peace will prevail.

A retrospective from 21-10.

By Matt Jaunich.

When a baby is born, he or she is allocated shares in an index fund of multinational equities, which pays monthly dividends, to support a modest lifestyle for life. These annuities, coupled with automated production, enable the pursuit of creative and innovative lives filled with meaning and significance. The arts are flourishing, and churches booming, as people seek meaning and face to face community in an age defined by virtual and intellibot (artificially intelligent bots) relationships. Life expectancy is now well beyond 150 quality years thanks to effective wellness promotion, the ability to manufacture human organs, and other tissue and genetic therapy breakthroughs achieved by the likes of Aubrey de Grey and Ray Kurzweil.

A major factor for wellness and longevity improvement was the shift to naturally derived products, materials and fibers from the toxic ingredients widely used in production during the past century, including poisonous chemicals used in food production, formaldehyde infused building products, synthetic and chemically treated carpeting, VOC paints, and fire retardant chemicals used in bedding. Natural and organic ingredients are also vital for a virtuous cradle to cradle product life-cycle, so production is a regenerative and not a destructive force (God’s Model was a major catalyst in enrolling more than a billion Christians worldwide in committing to this reality).

Landfills remain a vestige of the past century’s unsustainable industrial complex, and we are still working to cleanup waste disposal sites to prevent toxins from further poisoning ground water and wildlife ecosystems.  Many day-to-day supplies are simply manufactured on demand in home printing stations with materials that decompose and fertilize urban food structures.  And, Amazon’s VTOL (vertical takeoff and landing) robotic delivery vehicles ensure the guaranteed delivery of other goods in under three hours anywhere within the continental United States.

The transformation to a clean energy economy did more than save consumers trillions of dollars, and have wellness and environmental benefits resulting from clean air and water. The primary funding source of Islamic terrorist extremists was cutoff, which paves the way for a new Marshall Plan for the broken Islamic World that had been ravaged by war and instability.  The “Safe and Free Zones,” with Vulture Defense biometric security systems, succeeded in providing a clear choice throughout the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan between economic prosperity, security and freedom, and subsisting under the tyrannical rule of terrorists, which nearly eliminates Islamic extremism.

Peace on earth prevails, as economic opportunity extends to everyone, and abundant fresh water (primarily from desalinization, which also conveniently counters the threat of rising oceans) and free energy (sourced from a mix of ambient air, sun, geo-thermal, wind and the ocean energies) curtails violent struggles over resources. The huge militaries of China and the United States are dismantled and replaced by small and agile IPU’s (Intelligence Policing Units) that protect humanity from the remaining fringe fanatics.

Freedom also reigns supreme. Oppressive regimes can’t survive in a transparent world, where censorship and propaganda is undermined by instantaneous and free access to news and information through universal worldwide Internet provided by Google’s next-generation Global-Max service. The world community is also enlightened by the capability to freely travel throughout the world, and communicate seamlessly in any language.  In real time, mind reading technology listens to the little voice in your head that says what you want to say, and then generates the words in any language with a digital replication of your voice.

And, because airplanes are fueled by hydrogen generated from free energy, and security risks have been marginalized, the consumer cost to travel collapses to 0, while the airlines are more profitable than ever via advertising and other premium services.  Supersonic flight and sub-orbital flights mean it only takes less than 2 hours to get from San Francisco to Shanghai. And, when you arrive at the airport an autonomous Taxi vehicle takes you where you want for free (also supported by video advertising, a snack and mini bar, and other premium information services). Instantaneous teleporting and time travel have been demonstrated within research labs, and it’s looking promising that these technologies will be commercialized within the next 100 years.

Governments are a tiny fraction of the size they once were.  Blundering bureaucracies, and the ballooning government debt-bomb explosion enabled robust free-market solutions to education, healthcare, and transportation to thrive. The need for policing and emergency units and other public welfare expenses only requires a corporate flat tax of 2%.  The budget for operating the Internal Revenue Service has shrunk from $11 billion in 2009 ($10.5 trillion in today’s dollars) to $5 million today. The tax code, which in 2009 was more than 5.6 million words and 30,000 pages with single-spaced 12 pt font, is now simply half a page.

Transparency and probability management destroys the need for bloated bureaucracy and growth stifling regulation and is an inherently combatting force to corruption, dishonesty, and greed. Total transparency is achieved largely through mandated universal adoption of probability management and a networked, real-time, global Monte Carlo simulation engine, which illuminates the future in powerful ways, to inform optimal decision making in the present (accessed through WarpDrive’s Dashboard, a WarpShare company).  This technology also ensures stable economic growth, so another economic calamity like the busts of 1929, 1999, 2008 and 2016 doesn’t happen again.

The largest boon to the economic growth and prosperity the Earth enjoys today is a result of affordable and universal education offered through computing devices and BrainJump Innovation Centers. The thrust of education is to identify and develop a person’s unique gifts and passions, so life is productive and significant. Personalized learning paths within immersive 3 dimensional virtual spaces are based on students’ individual aptitudes and interests. Learning is also an active experience, rather than the archaic passive and regurgitative experience it once was. Education revolves around innovation, and is fun, collaborative, and individually-paced. And, because learning is connected to real-world problem solving, students no longer ask, “Why do I have to learn this?” Online education is also the great equalizer, as students anywhere in the world have the same access to world-class teaching resources.

Quality of life is dramatically improved by the literal greening of cities, where buildings are living, breathing organisms that complement natural habitats and ecosystems. Smart urban design also promotes health and wellness through social interaction, improved productivity, and supporting a positive state of mind. Most significantly, the use of personal transportation vehicles like Segways, and raised monorail systems, eliminates traffic in and around dense urban centers. In this world, crime is rare, because people are authentically happy. Research has proven that mental health directly impacts overall health and wellness more than any other factor, and advanced monitoring and sensor systems track health metrics, including mental health. Therapies are administered via meBOOST in real time, so people can achieve their full potential.

* bold connotes initiatives I’m developing

The Case for Optimism: Supporting Evidence for the Thesis

The Bush proposal for the partial privatization of social security is prescient of this prediction.

Aubrey de Grey TED talk

Essential reading on transforming how we design and make things – Cradle to Cradle by William McDonough & Michael Braungart –

God’s Model

Mercury levels in fish is rising as a result of increased greenhouse gasses.

Bisphenol A is one of many contaminants found in plastic food packaging.

The safety of chemicals is “the question of the hour for the early 21st Century.” – David Rosner, Professor of history and public health at Columbia University.

3D Object Printing from home

Urban Farms and plastic packaging alternatives

The transition is already happening via Fair Trade (organic) certification, which is extending beyond food products to clothing. Building products are similarly rated and evaluated by LEED and others. Appliances are rated for energy efficiency.

Bloom Energy a Kleiner Perkins investment, is developing technology to produce energy from ambient air

Solar Cells are getting more and more efficient

Hydrogen Fuel and clean energy carrier

Safe Zones and the U.S. Iraq exit Strategy

Ryanair foreshadows this prediction, as it offers free tickets to 1/4 of its passengers

The DARPA Grand Challenge: has already produced autonomous vehicles capable of navigating an urban setting. Several cars already currently have self-breaking and lane assist technologies and can even parallel park This means that vehicles will be able to safely travel on highways at speeds of more than 200 miles per hour, while passengers watch television and drink cold beer with their feet up.

Mind Reading Technology segment on 60 Minutes

Time Travel

2057 Science Channel

The World First Time Machine


Probability Management

Flaw of Averages

Floating city nation states will form, as people escape oppressive taxation and economic stagnation resulting from irresponsible, misinformed, and reckless fiscal and monetary policy. These nation states will provide a model for nations around the world, to effectively eliminate stifling taxation regimes through new revenue generating business models. The Seasteading Institute

SRI International and the Department of Education have studied the efficacy of online education, which has shown to be more effective than conventional education, and online education is still in its infancy. Online programs can scale with virtually additional per user cost.

The most significant last and final threat to humanity is the chance of huge meteor hit, but thanks to the Lifeboat Foundation and their colonies on Moon and Mars, humanity should persist for the foreseeable future.  LIfeboat Foundation

Kahe drinks – sweetened with the Stevia plant, a “sweet herb”
Thursday September 03rd 2009, 8:29 pm

Filed under: food and drink, health

The Guarani Indians of Paraguay used the Stevia plant to naturally sweeten things – it’s sweeter than sugar without negative effects – it has no calories, no carbohydrates, doesn’t promote tooth decay, is safe for diabetics etc. Kahe Drinks, which I just sampled at the market, are sparkling fruit drinks using this special ingredient, and they’re quite good!

Kahe drinksStevia plant

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innovation meets sanitation
Friday May 01st 2009, 8:56 pm

check out this new technology, a hygienic door handle solution for public bathrooms.

hygeneic-public-restroom-door-handleDemo video here.

images from the future
Friday May 01st 2009, 8:03 pm

A health diagnostics and information mirror:health-mirror

Negative calorie colas:


Genetic engineered pets from a vending machine:

genetic-engineering-dog-vending-machine[discovered through Twine]

Saturday February 14th 2009, 11:46 pm

Filed under: earth, health, home


plants-to-clean-indoor-airthanks, kevin

BOLD PROPOSAL – How would we cut the prison population in half?
Monday December 22nd 2008, 12:56 am

As part of the Inspired Economist’s plan to create 25 million new green jobs within 3-5 years, and to reduce the government deficit by $100 billion, Ramsay Mameesh propses cutting the prison population by 1/2.

How could we safely and responsibly do that?

If at risk populations (such as returning Vets or urban youth) and current inmates are psychologically rehabilitated and have a realistic plan and career purpose.

This could be accomplished by CBT methods pioneered at UCSF and Stanford, and could be administered by automated computer systems, without expensive one-to-one therapist and other expensive consumables. What a great problem to try to tackle!

Tuesday December 16th 2008, 9:34 am

source link here.

1. Nuts About Nuts (and seeds)
Nuts are now being hailed as nutritional powerhouses, which is why they are showing up in more new product launches. Snack bars, in fact, are increasingly going “naked” to showcase nut ingredients. You won’t find Quaker True Delights Chewy Granola Bars (U.S.A.) covered in chocolate as the PepsiCo product claims “you can actually see large chunks of macadamia nuts.” Seeds, too, are getting their due on the health front, including flax seeds, sunflower seeds and pumpkin seeds.

2. Don’t Energize, Relax
If economic woes caused by an overly caffeinated worldwide financial system are a metaphor for what may happen in food and beverage markets, then get ready for more relaxation offerings. New product offerings going the relaxation route include Drank Relaxed Energy Beverage (U.S.A.) dubbed the “world’s first extreme relaxation beverage” that induces a natural calming and soothing effect when consumed. Also new are Purple Stuff Pro-Relaxation & Calming Elixir (U.S.A.), Nescafe Body Partner Relax Coffee, which is decaffeinated coffee infused with chamomile (Philippines), and Lotte Relax Gum Apple Tea Mint (Japan). The last is a new functional chewing gum with theanine from green tea that delivers a relaxing effect.

3. Hold the Water
Stratospheric oil prices during 2008 caused companies to reexamine how they do business. One realization firms made is that transporting water is expensive and it is cheaper to have consumers add their own water when possible. That’s the idea behind Arm & Hammer Essentials (U.S.A.), a new line of cleaning products including Glass Cleaner and Multi-Surface Cleaner that is comprised of empty 32-fl.-oz. trigger sprayer bottles sold with attached 1.2-oz. (35ml) bottles of liquid concentrate to be mixed with water. Kilrock Aquo Refillable Trigger Cleaning Spray is a UK product that follows the same principle. Look for this trend to really blossom in 2009 as the cost-cutting intensifies.

4. Beauty, You Can Eat or Drink
Move over cosmetics. The new way to look beautiful is with an emerging generation of specially formulated foods and drinks. Though the trend is very much in its infancy, it has attracted some attention from heavy-hitters in the food industry like Nestle and Masterfoods. Nestle’s new Glowelle Beauty Drink Supplement Powder (U.S.A.) fights signs of aging from the inside out with skin-beautifying antioxidants. Masterfoods’ Dove Beautiful Milk Chocolate has skin-nourishing ingredients like vitamins C and E along with biotin, zinc and cocoa flavanols.

5. Steam It Up
What says both “fresh” and “tasty” to today’s consumer? Steam and steam cooking. Steam literally has a head of steam in the frozen food market as a growing number of food makers introduce products showcasing the cooking power of steam. Buoyed by a new generation of microwave cook-in-bags that vent excess steam during the cooking process, the trend is picking up momentum with launches like Dole Easy Steamer Potatoes (U.S.A.), Birds Eye Steamfresh Specially Seasoned Rice (U.S.A.) and Bonduelle Vapeur Vegetables (France).

6. Detox Me
Worldwide financial markets are trying to detoxify themselves from bad loans. Consumers are doing some detoxification of their own thanks to new products hitting the market that promise to “detoxify” in one way or another. Some food-based detox products use liver-friendly ingredients like dandelion root as active ingredients, but regardless of the science behind the trend, consumers are paying attention to celebrities making a name for detox diets including Beyonce and Oprah Winfrey. Recent “detox” launches include Function Urban Detox Goji Berry Drink (U.S.A.), V Water Detox Vitamin Water (UK) and Biore Detoxify Daily Scrub (U.S.A.).

7. Get Ready For Stevia
It’s been called the “holy grail” of sweeteners. Stevia is a natural sweetener that comes from the South American stevia plant and has the potential to turn the sweetener world upside down. This zero-calorie sweetener has been used for years in South America and Japan, but has been banned in processed foods and beverages in the United States and much of Europe. That could change in 2009 as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is preparing to decide if stevia variant Rebaudioside A may be safely used in processed products. If approval is granted, the new product floodgates could open quickly as both Coca-Cola and PepsiCo are both ready to roll with new stevia-sweetened drinks.

8. It’s An “Eco” Friendly World
Worldwide economies may be dipping, but that does not seem to have dampened the desire for companies and products to be perceived to be environmentally friendly. Mentions of the word “eco” for new food and non-food packaged goods from around the world have nearly doubled in the last two years, according to Datamonitor’s Product Launch Analytics. Nature Babycare Eco Sensitive Fragrance Free Awarded Wipes (Finland), Plush Eco Fabric Softener (Brazil) and Nvey Eco Organic Erase Corrective Makeup (Australia) are some products that are definitely “on trend.”

9. Flower Power
Floral flavors like lavender, hibiscus and jasmine have long enjoyed success in non-foods, but are newer to foods and drinks markets. Examples include OOBA Sparkling Refreshing Hibiscus Beverage (U.S.A.), which is said to have a high level of antioxidants, Simply Hibi Health Drink (UK) and Lavender-Jalapeno flavored Theo Caramel Collection Chocolates (U.S.A.). Subtle, non-fattening and aromatic, floral flavors look to surprise in 2009.

10. Brain Power
In today’s world, mental fitness may well be more important than physical fitness. Packaged goods makers seem to have come to the same conclusion, as a growing number of brain health products are hitting the market. Touting “good for your brain” ingredients like DHA omega-3s are recent entries like Kellogg’s LiveBright Brain Health Bar (U.S.A.), IQ Plus Brain Drink (Austria and Germany) and Unilever’s Rama Idea! Margarine (Europe). Mentions of the word “brain” in new food and beverage products worldwide have nearly tripled in the 2007-2008 period versus the 2005-2006 period, according to Datamonitor’s Product Launch Analytics.

MEDICAL ROBOT extending the reach of trauma care surgeons
Friday December 05th 2008, 4:40 pm

read all all about it (link here).


How to Heal the Healthcare System
Tuesday November 25th 2008, 10:25 am

thought this article written by Clayton Christensen and Jerome Grossman and Jason Hwang is particularly good.

From my own research:

Twenty-five percent of the U.S. community population are reported to have one or more of five major chronic conditions:

  • Mood disorders.
  • Diabetes.
  • Heart disease.
  • Asthma.
  • Hypertension.

Total expenses for people with these five major chronic conditions accounts for ~ 49 percent of total health care costs.

And, I’ve heard that all chronic conditions actually represent around 85% of spending.

The really interesting thing to me is that technology is well positioned to disrupt current models of care for these chronic conditions. Internet-based interventions can potentially treat mood disorders and hypertension (in lieu of expensive pharmaceuticals and other consumables). The Internet can also be used to more effectively manage diabetes and heart disease, to decrease the risks of these diseases, as well as prescribe preventative measures for those in the population at risk of these conditions.

I’ve heard the analogy that routine healthcare (checkups) etc. should be treated like a car’s oil change, an out of pocket expense, and insurance should be structured, to focus on catastrophic or emergency health.

Dean Kamen article in Esquire
Tuesday November 25th 2008, 9:22 am

Filed under: health, medical

great article on Dean [link].

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